a positive mammography because she has breast cancer. . When problems are presented in natural frequences, the proportion of people using Bayesian reasoning rises to around half. . Its a chance for me to use my head and my hands to make something pretty, or practical, or fun. The Overall Impression: Vanessa's essay succeeds on many fronts. So you came here. .
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However, mammography returns a positive result for only one out of a million women without breast cancer - mammography has the same rate of false negatives, but a vastly lower rate of false positives. . The proof is left as an exercise for the reader. The likelihood ratio for X, p(XA p(XA determines how much observing X slides the probability for A; the likelihood ratio is what says how strong X is as evidence. . Maybe you don't understand what the equation says. . Languages less powerful than Blub are obviously less powerful, because they're missing some feature he's used.